Global Change Biology

Forests are known to burn and desiccate under a changing climate; less appreciated is that they also drown. Across much of the globe, a warming atmosphere is amplifying the length and intensity of both droughts and floods. Whereas massive die-offs from drought and fire are widely studied as consequences of climate change on forests, inundation-induced mortality remains poorly quantified. Using approximately 1 m resolution aerial imagery and deep learning, we tracked over 260 million dead trees across the United States' Great Lakes and ocean coastlines from 2012 to 2023. Within 10 km of the coasts, more than half of mapped mortality was concentrated in just 10% of forests, primarily in high-elevation inland wetlands and low-lying forests prone to inundation. Mortality rates doubled within a decade around expanding freshwater lakes and in inland wetlands experiencing intensifying regional-scale precipitation, while tripling in low-lying coastal forests where salinization compounded inundation in sea-level rise hotspots. Our findings identify rising waters as a widespread, underappreciated driver of forest die-off that can extend far inland, underscoring the need to reassess the impacts of climate change on the functioning, demography, and carbon-methane budgets amongst the world's most carbon-rich forests as seas rise and hydroclimate shifts globally.

O_LIDrought and warming can disrupt soil microbial processes and ecosystem functioning. Although soil microorganisms can exhibit physiological adjustments to drought, it remains unclear how they allocate resources between extracellular resource acquisition, potential oxidative metabolism, and carbon storage during drought and recovery, particularly under constant warming and/or heat waves. C_LIO_LIHere, we tested the effects of drought on microbial resource allocation strategies across warming regimes during the resistance and recovery phases. We performed a full-factorial outdoor mesocosm experiment combining drought with constant warming and periodic heat waves, applied individually and in combination. We measured the potential activities of extracellular enzymes as proxy for the acquisition of microbial resources, the activity of dehydrogenase as a proxy for the potential active oxidative metabolism, and microbial glycogen pools as a proxy for carbon storage. We also quantified drought legacy effects by measuring microbial functioning before the new drought treatments, capturing the influence of the drought imposed in the previous year. C_LIO_LIDuring the resistance phase, dehydrogenase activity and glycogen pools remained stable, despite reduced extracellular enzyme production, while enzyme allocation shifted towards oxidative enzymes associated with acquisition of recalcitrant C in warming regimes. One month after rewetting, all microbial proxies no longer differed from the control soil moisture conditions. Drought legacy effects were observed in extracellular enzymes, dehydrogenase activity, and glycogen pools, with glycogen exhibiting the strongest legacy effect. C_LIO_LIWe conclude that the asymmetrical responses of extracellular resource acquisition and internal C storage to drought and warming may function as strategies for microbial survival in increasingly variable climates. C_LI

Sequential hurricane-heatwave events threaten forest resilience via understudied legacy effects. Using Bayesian Structural Time Series, piecewise Structural Equation Modeling, and a 21-event global synthesis, we quantify how structural degradation non-linearly amplifies productivity loss during subsequent heatwaves. Our Hurricane Michael (2018) case study reveals significant negative GPP legacy effects during the 2019 heatwave. Intact, tall and diverse canopies buffer microclimates and moderate thermal sensitivity. Hurricane-induced structural simplification removes this protection, exposing temperature-sensitive shaded leaves to extreme stress. We identified a context-dependent hydraulic trade-off: structural complexity provides shading but exacerbates forest sensitivity to water deficits during peak heat, the vulnerability of which reverses during the recovery phase. Globally, these legacy effects are triggered by heatwave intensity and modulated by soil type, with loamy-soil forests most vulnerable. These findings highlight the critical role of forest structure in forest responses to compound disturbances. Neglecting structural legacies in Earth System Models likely underestimates risks to global carbon sinks.

Reactive nitrogen (N) inputs underpin global food production, but increasing protein provision while limiting agricultural N pressure remains a major sustainability challenge. Here, we analyzed changes in N use, cropland N surplus and protein supply across 130 countries from 1992 to 2022 to assess whether recurrent N-transition patterns emerge during agricultural and economic development. Countries followed divergent trajectories rather than converging toward a common N transition. Absolute decoupling, with increasing protein supply and declining cropland N surplus, occurred in 35.4% of countries, while others showed relative improvements or increasing N pressure. Cropland N surplus rose more steeply as agricultural N inputs intensified. Long-term trajectories revealed contrasting forms of N-system reorganization, from persistently lower-pressure systems to intensifying systems. Absolute decoupling occurred across diverse economic contexts and was not systematically associated with development level. Higher-development countries that decoupled generally reduced N surplus from higher starting levels but still ended with higher surpluses. Thus, increasing protein provision while reducing N surplus is achievable, but improvement does not necessarily imply convergence toward low N pressure.

Global change factors (GCFs) are known to affect terrestrial ecosystems across a range of land-use types, including farmlands, grasslands, and forests. However, it remains unclear whether different landscape elements within the same region respond differently to the same global change pressures. Here, we investigated this question using four soils collected from co-located farmland, grassland, pine forest, and oak forest, representing distinct landscape elements under the same regional climatic conditions. Each soil was exposed to one of six individual GCFs, warming, drought, nitrogen deposition, salinity, microplastics, and antibiotics, as well as to all six factors combined. We found that landscape elements exhibited strongly divergent responses to the same GCFs. The effects on soil functions also varied among soils under combined stress, with responses diverging from different null-model predictions depending on soils and response variable. Moreover, landscape-element specific response patterns became more pronounced under multiple concurrent stressors. Overall, our findings show that landscape heterogeneity represents a mosaic of different capacities to resist and respond to global change, even under shared climatic and geographic conditions. Global change assessments and ecosystem models should therefore better account for landscape-level heterogeneity, and management strategies aimed at enhancing ecosystem resilience should be tailored to individual landscape elements.

Climate change is accelerating species losses in ecosystems across the world. Seed germination is a critical, climate-dependent phase of the plant life cycle; however, the ecological determinants of germination climate niches within diverse landscapes and across functional types (FTs) are still not well understood. In this study, we characterized seed germination temperature and water availability niches for 28 species that represent different FTs (tree, shrub, grass, forb) and vegetation types (grassy woodland, dry and wet forests) within a temperate bioregion (Sydney, Australia). We tested whether ecological determinants, specifically species climate of origin, seed traits, FT and vegetation type explain germination niches and predicted spatial and temporal patterns of germination potential across the landscape under high and low emission scenarios. We found wide variation in thermal and hydric germination niches among species. Optimal germination temperature (thermal niche) was predicted by FT, climate of origin and seed traits, such that shrubs, cool-origin species, and species with large seeds had significantly cooler optimal temperatures for germination. We also quantified spatial and temporal changes in germination potential to identify vulnerable areas and FTs. We found strong species-specific seasonal patterns in germination potential with future climate shifts affecting FTs differently; germination of woody species declined more than forbs. Future germination potential was predicted by historical climatic conditions, with warmer and drier localities being more vulnerable. Overall, our findings demonstrate that species germination responses to climate change depend on FT, seed traits, and species climate of origin, with woody species and warmer, drier parts of the landscape emerging as being particularly vulnerable to declines in recruitment. Our study provides a mechanistic understanding of germination responses to temperature and water availability, enabling predictions of vulnerable species and areas for conservation under climate change, and inform large-scale ecosystem restoration approaches through improved species selection and sowing times.

Extreme climate events are rapidly reshaping ecosystems and contributing to biodiversity loss, yet their long-term impacts remain poorly understood, particularly in marine systems. In 2011, an unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) on the west coast of Australia drove declines in habitat-forming plants and across taxa spanning multiple trophic levels. Shark Bay, home to an iconic Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population, endured temperatures 3-5{degrees}C above long-term means, triggering catastrophic seagrass loss. Using 20 years (2003-2023) of dolphin photo-identification data, we fitted a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model to estimate annual, age-class specific survival probabilities, abundance and recruitment rate, and their association with MHW-mediated seagrass loss in the western (WSB) and eastern (ESB) gulfs of Shark Bay. Adult survival declined markedly, from 0.99 (0.98-1.00) pre-MHW to 0.85 (0.79-0.90) post-MHW in WSB, and from 0.96 (0.92-0.98) to 0.89 (0.85-0.95) in ESB, remaining below pre-MHW levels for several years, while juvenile and calf survival declined in both gulfs to a lesser extent. Recruitment declined in both gulfs and, although recovery was evident in WSB from 2019 onward, continued to decline in ESB until the end of the study. These sustained demographic declines drove substantial reductions in population growth and abundance in both WSB (39%) and ESB (36%). Demographic changes were associated with seagrass loss, here a proxy for habitat and prey availability, with clearest support for adult survival in WSB and a two-year-lagged recruitment response in ESB. This pathway is likely to operate across diverse ecosystems as climate change drives increasing loss of habitat-forming species. The severity and duration of these demographic impacts illustrate that habitat change can cascade through trophic systems to overwhelm demographic resilience in upper-trophic species. This has negative implications for even long-lived, K-selected species, whose slow demographic recovery may not keep pace with the accelerating frequency and intensity of climate disturbance.

Background and aims Alpine ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change, with rising temperatures threatening ecosystem structure and function. This study examined the short-term responses of alpine grassland ecosystems (Mont Blanc, Italy) to projected climate scenarios using an Ecotron mesocosm experiment. Methods Ecosystem monoliths were exposed to current (~420 ppm CO2) and future CO2; concentrations (~550 and ~800 ppm) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, incorporating changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity, and radiation. CO2; fluxes (NEP, GPP, Reco), soil chemistry, vegetation coverage, above- and belowground biomass, and plant functional traits were assessed throughout the experiment. Results Alpine grassland ecosystems withstood moderate warming (RCP 4.5), while under severe warming (RCP 8.5), GPP, vegetation cover and biomass increased with a shift toward aboveground allocation, although daytime NEP remained stable as gains were offset by higher Reco, with no detectable water and nutrients limitations. On a diel basis, higher GPP was offset by enhanced Reco, indicating a potential towards net C loss. Salix herbacea exhibited functional trait adjustments-higher LMA and Na, and elevated delta15N-reflecting greater leaf longevity, water-use efficiency, and altered nitrogen metabolism, suggesting potential community reorganization. Conclusion Over a single growing season, alpine ecosystems appeared relatively stable under moderate warming. However, under the more severe RCP 8.5 scenario, biomass allocation shifted toward greater aboveground and reduced belowground investment, leading to altered C fluxes that, if sustained over the long-term, could drive the ecosystem C balance from a sink to a source. Responses were plant species-specific, indicating uneven acclimation within the community.

Coral bleaching is among the most infamous climate impacts. Yet the extent of bleaching due to human-caused climate change, as opposed to natural El Nino variability, and the contributions of individual countries and carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) remains unquantified. Here, we leverage coral monitoring globally across 4,479 sites from 1985-2024 to link specific emitters to marine heat stress and bleaching. For events with >10% of corals bleached at a site, we find that 99% (95% CI: 88-100%) were attributable to human-caused climate change. Even during major El Ninos, 97-100% of bleaching events were attributable to human-caused climate change and the extent of damage increases over time from 23% of sites bleached (95% CI: 3-35%) during 1998 to 71% of sites (95% CI: 37-85%) during 2023-2024. Emissions of the United States, the largest historical emitter, contributed to 51% (95% CI: 39-65%) of bleaching events. Emissions linked to Chevron, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and ExxonMobil each contributed to 14% (95% CI: 11-19%) of bleaching events -- roughly double the contribution of the 39 countries of the Alliance for Small Island States. It is virtually certain emissions of China, the United States, and Indonesia caused bleaching in their coastal waters. Strong inequalities exist where countries with high socioeconomic dependence on coral reefs experienced 54% of bleaching yet contributed only 5% to bleaching. As global warming rapidly nears levels catastrophic for warm-water corals, our results show the massive contribution from anthropogenic emissions to historical coral beaching and help fill an important evidentiary gap on accountability for non-economic loss and damage from climate change.

Land-use and climate change are dominant drivers of terrestrial biodiversity change, yet are usually analysed separately although they co-occur and may interact. We integrated global bird assemblage records from PREDICTS with temperature anomalies and species' ecological characteristics to test how land use modifies biodiversity responses to climate warming across three dimensions: local abundance and richness, compositional dissimilarity among assemblages, and species occurrence across ecological groups. Land use modified warming associations for both abundance and richness. Relative to primary vegetation, warming associations were more positive in low-intensity agriculture for both responses, but more negative for richness in high-intensity agriculture and urban land. Predicted richness remained below the reference, defined as primary vegetation at temperature anomaly 0, across all modified land uses, with the largest declines in high-intensity agriculture (-17.9%) and urban land (-21.8%). Within land-use classes, greater warming exposure was generally associated with higher compositional similarity, consistent with warming associated biotic homogenisation. Occurrence models revealed ecological filtering: broad-niched generalists were favoured in warmer modified habitats, whereas range-restricted habitat specialists were filtered out under intensive land use and warming. Conservation assessments should therefore integrate land-use-warming interactions with changes in assemblage composition and ecological strategies, particularly in agricultural and urban landscapes where warming further disadvantaged range-restricted specialists.

Forests are threatened by a multitude of stressors, including anthropogenic disturbances and climate change. Assessing how forests will respond to these stressors requires a comprehensive understanding of net primary productivity (Npp), environmental constraints on growth, and adaptive capacity. A parameter of significant uncertainty is belowground Npp (bNpp), which can account for up to 80% of total Npp but is poorly estimated and rarely measured directly. We used a cross-biome dataset of direct, field-based measurements of aboveground and belowground primary productivity and 21 climatic and soil variables to identify potential constraints on bNpp and belowground carbon allocation in boreal and cold temperate forests. Soil variables, rather than climate variables, were the main drivers of bNpp and belowground allocation across biomes. The importance of soil variables suggests that soil nutrient dynamics, especially soil nutrient pool and flux variables, must be explicitly modeled to more accurately predict feedbacks between climate, productivity, and within-tree carbon allocation. Within biomes, environmental drivers of belowground allocation varied between low versus high allocation forests, indicating that environmental drivers are site-specific and the development of within-biome, site-scale classifications for forest ecosystems could be useful. Changes in soil variables, such as increasing soil nitrogen pools, caused abrupt and large decreases in bNpp for boreal, but not cold temperate forests. Threshold-like shifts indicate that boreal forests might have lower adaptive capacity and higher sensitivity to disturbances than cold temperate forests. With 70% of boreal forests characterized by low bNpp, disturbances such as anthropogenic nitrogen deposition could cause large-scale decreases in bNpp that could push these forests beyond their adaptive capacity.

Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, reshaping ecosystems and threatening biodiversity worldwide. Anticipating where invaders will establish and where they will exert the strongest ecological impacts are key challenges for early detection and targeted management. Although Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast biological invasions, they often provide uncertain estimates of establishment ranges and limited insight into invader performance, making it difficult to anticipate ecological impacts. Here, we address these limitations by integrating physiological information on invader performance with SDMs to identify regions of high invasion risk. Using the brown alga Rugulopteryx okamurae, one of the most prominent marine invaders in Europe, we first test alternative hypotheses of northern establishment limits: (i) a cold-survival constraint driven by winter temperatures and (ii) a growth constraint derived from the species' thermal performance. To identify the more likely scenario, we combine cold-tolerance experiments with seasonal growth comparisons between the invader and a native macroalga Dictyota dichotoma, whose established distribution allows physiological performance to be directly related to realised presence. Finally, we project seasonal growth of the invader across the predicted establishment range as a proxy for biomass accumulation and potential ecological impacts. Our results indicate that northern limit in Europe will be more likely constrained by winter survival rather than growth, extending the potential establishment range of Rugulopteryx to mid-Norway. In contrast, the highest impacts are likely to remain concentrated in southern Europe, where thermal conditions sustain high year-round growth. Overall, our approach illustrates how understanding the physiological response of invaders to their environment can improve the interpretation of SDM outputs and help identify areas at greatest risk of impact within their potential establishment range.

{middle dot} Globally, forest ecosystems face widespread mortality events. However, the independent impacts of distinct stressors, such as heat stress vs edaphic drought, remain poorly understood and physiological early warning indicators for tree mortality are urgently required. {middle dot} We exposed well-watered saplings of Fagus sylvatica, Pseudotsuga menziesii and Picea abies to summer heat waves and subsequent natural winter-desiccation. Physiological parameters (e.g. gas exchange, water uptake velocity via 2H labelling, and volatile organic compound emissions) were monitored throughout the growing season and survival was assessed regularly until subsequent spring to capture immediate and delayed mortality as a consequence of legacy effects. {middle dot} Heat exposure without soil water deficit, followed by winter desiccation, triggered species-specific mortality rates (51.8% F. sylvatica, 48.2% P. abies, 16.9% P. menziesii), with P. abies exhibiting significantly faster mortality response than the other species. Reduced water uptake, lower stomatal conductance, impaired photosynthetic efficiency, and altered VOC emissions distinguished non-surviving from surviving saplings months before visible damage in all three species. {middle dot} Heat stress drives mortality independent of edaphic drought, with sub-lethal physiological indicators detectable up to 10 months before visual signs. These early warning indicators could enable damage detection before lethal thresholds are crossed, offering new strategies for mitigating climate change-driven forest decline.

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves under climate change highlight the need to understand how biodiversity regulates forest canopy thermal dynamics. Although tree diversity can buffer the microclimate, its effects on canopy temperature and the role of mycorrhizal symbioses remain unclear. We addressed this question in the MyDiv tree diversity experiment in Germany, where tree species richness (1-, 2-, and 4-species mixtures) and mycorrhizal types (arbuscular, ectomycorrhizal, and mixed) are factorially manipulated. During the 2024 growing season, we conducted nine uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys using integrated thermal and LiDAR sensors to quantify canopy temperature and structural complexity, together with measurements of leaf water content, specific leaf area, soil moisture, and vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Increasing tree diversity generally reduced canopy temperature, although the strength of this relationship varied seasonally and among mycorrhizal types. Cooling effects were strongest during peak summer heat and were more pronounced in arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) communities than in ectomycorrhizal (EM) and mixed (AM+EM) communities. In contrast, EM communities exhibited greater canopy structural complexity, whereas AM communities maintained higher soil and leaf water content. Structural complexity increased with tree diversity but did not necessarily result in greater canopy cooling. Structural equation modelling revealed that forest thermal buffering emerged through complementary structural and hydraulic pathways, whose relative importance shifted seasonally, with hydraulic regulation becoming increasingly important under hotter and drier conditions. By linking canopy temperature, canopy structure, and plant water relations, our study provides mechanistic insights for understanding how multiple facets of biodiversity regulate forest thermal buffering under climate warming.

A direct empirical relationship between gross primary productivity (GPP) estimated by the eddy covariance method and satellite vegetation indices (VIs) has been widely observed across diverse ecosystems globally. Building on this observed covariation, VIs are frequently utilized as critical parameters - such as the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) - within light use efficiency (LUE) and greenness-based models for carbon cycle monitoring. However, actual canopy carbon assimilation is jointly governed by slowly evolving structural parameters and highly dynamic functional traits, such as physiological efficiency. The extent to which the macro-scale VI-GPP covariance is driven by structural scaffolding, and how this structural signal decouples from physiological function under environmental stress, remains to be systematically quantified. Here, we synthesized half-hourly eddy covariance measurements from 328 globally distributed sites and paired them with a rigorously angle-normalized Enhanced Vegetation Index (nadir view and fixed solar zenith angle at 30 degrees, EVI_SZA30). By applying a nonlinear light-response curve model across 54,720 high-frequency temporal windows, we mechanistically disentangled observed actual GPP (GPP_EC) into baseline photosynthetic capacity (P_c) and intrinsic quantum yield (alpha). Our results demonstrate that the macroscopic covariance between EVI_SZA30 and GPP_EC (R^2=0.554) is primarily driven by the index's robust ability to track structural capacity (P_c, R^2=0.538). In contrast, EVI_SZA30 exhibits limited sensitivity to high-frequency variations in functional traits like physiological efficiency (alpha, R^2=0.038). Particularly in water-limited biomes (e.g., open shrublands and woody savannas), intense environmental stress triggers rapid stomatal regulation while the physical canopy structure remains relatively stable. Consequently, the correlation between EVI and P_c becomes notably stronger than its correlation with actual GPP_EC, highlighting a pronounced structural-physiological decoupling. Because discrete overpasses by sun-synchronous polar-orbiting satellites face intrinsic temporal constraints in capturing sub-daily physiological down-regulation (e.g., midday photosynthetic depression), future monitoring paradigms could greatly benefit from the continuous, high-frequency observations provided by next-generation geostationary (GEO) satellites to bridge the gap between structural parameters and transient ecosystem function.

Intensifying fire regimes threaten forests globally, but the risk of persistent post-fire forest loss and its potential mitigation remains poorly quantified. We analyzed millions of wildfires worldwide from 2001 to 2024 and tracked recovery in satellite-observed forest structure and ecosystem function. Post-fire persistent forest loss, indicated by modeled non-recovery to pre-fire conditions over decadal timescales, affected 57.1% of burned forest area globally since 2001, with hotspots in Pacific temperate and southern boreal forests. We then identified 'crucial fires' as events exceeding a stringent modeled-risk probability threshold for persistent structural or functional non-recovery, with fire severity strongly predicting this loss. This severity dependence revealed a management pathway, as locations with prior low-severity fire experienced lower severity in subsequent wildfires and had lower modeled probability of becoming crucial. Under a model-based counterfactual scenario, applying the estimated severity attenuation was associated with a 7.6% reduction; the top 1% of road-accessible areas accounted for 35% of this reduction. These results provide a global framework for identifying where wildfire threatens forest resistance and where targeted low-severity fire management like prescribed fire might be used to combat global forest loss.

AimHere we aim to disentangle species-specific bioclimatic drivers of forest site productivity and project their future dynamics, providing a spatially explicit basis for anticipating climate-driven shifts in productivity and their implications for forest carbon sequestration. LocationIberian Peninsula. Time period1985-2014 (calibration); 2071-2100 (projected under CMIP6 scenarios). Major taxa studied21 Iberian tree species. MethodsWe used Site Form (SF) maps derived from the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory, spatially interpolating plot-level SF estimates as a continuous productivity index and relating them to 25 bioclimatic variables. Multiple linear regression models were selected via complementary stepwise and subset regression and validated on independent hold-out data (80%/20% split). ResultsValidated [Formula] ranged from 0.46 (Quercus faginea) to 0.97 (Pinus pinaster); 17 of 21 species reached [Formula]. BI013 precipitation of the wettest month), not BI014, was the most frequently retained predictor (15/17); BI014 was retained in only (11/17 models with a near-even sign split. Combining projected changes in mean productivity and habitat extent under SSP5-8.5, fifteen of sixteen applicable species lose total productivity by 2071-2100, six -- including Fagus sylvatica and Betula alba -- collapsing to below 1% of their reference-period value; only Pinus pinaster gains, and only under the lowest-emission pathway (up to 175%) -- under SSP5-8.5 it too loses productivity, albeit less than any other species (35% of its reference-period value retained). Limiting warming to SSP1-2.6 spares Mediterranean pine and oak species but not Euro-Siberian and montane ones. Main conclusionsThese validated, extrapolation-aware models reveal a near-universal, climate-driven collapse in Iberian forest site productivity, with direct implications for the carbon-sink potential currently attributed to these forest types, and provide a route to dynamic, climate-aware carbon-uptake estimates for the region.

Understanding how carbon-water coupling scales from leaves to ecosystems remains a major challenge because water-use efficiency (WUE) metrics integrate physiological, hydrological, and ecological processes. We integrated tree-ring width, triple stable isotopes ({delta}13C, {delta}18O and {delta}2H), eddy covariance (EC) observations, and a process-based model to investigate the drivers of intrinsic (iWUE) and ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUEeco) across biological scales in a mature Fagus sylvatica forest between 2004 and 2023. Modelled and isotope-derived iWUE were strongly correlated (r = 0.61, p < 0.05) and both indicated an approximately 20% long-term increase, consistent with increasing gross primary productivity. In contrast, WUEeco derived from EC was lower than model estimates and exhibited a positive trend not reproduced by the model. This divergence primarily reflected differences in biological representation and hydrological integration, as the single-species model underestimated ecosystem evapotranspiration by excluding co-occurring deciduous and evergreen species together with understory vegetation. Triple-isotope analyses showed that the long-term increase in iWUE was driven by enhanced photosynthetic assimilation rather than sustained stomatal closure, whereas {delta}18O and {delta}2H variability was mainly controlled by source-water dynamics. These findings provide a mechanistic framework for reconciling leaf- and ecosystem-scale WUE and improving predictions of forest carbon-water coupling under climate change.

Background and AimsAnthropogenic global change is altering the environmental stressors facing plants and their microbial symbionts. Changes in drought and temperature have received wide attention, but how other pervasive human impacts - land conversion for agricultural development and urbanization, and changes in nutrient conditions and pollutants - impact plant- microbe symbioses is relatively unknown. Here, we investigated how these anthropogenic global change drivers influence historic changes in the prevalence of widespread symbionts of grasses, Epichloe fungal endophytes. MethodsWe examined 8,739 seeds from 1,951 herbarium specimens collected between 1895 and 2019 for the presence of seed-transmitted Epichloe fungal endophytes in three grass host species (Agrostis hyemalis, Agrostis perennans, and Elymus virginicus). We hypothesized that the symbiosis provides fitness benefits under anthropogenic stresses (i.e. increased nitrogen deposition and land use change) that should translate to increased prevalence of the interaction among specimens exposed to those stresses. Key ResultsAnthropogenic stresses had contrasting effects on endophyte prevalence. Notably, among Agrostis host species, high nitrogen deposition was associated with high endophyte prevalence and with increasing trends in prevalence through time. We also found that highly urbanized landscapes were associated with reduced prevalence and negative temporal trends in endophyte prevalence across species. We also identified a weak positive relationship between agricultural land cover and average endophyte prevalence for Elymus virginicus, though temporal trends in prevalence did not differ between high and low levels of agricultural land cover. ConclusionsAnthropogenic stressors influenced endophyte prevalence in diverse ways. While we found increasing prevalence in the face of nitrogen deposition, a sign of the potential resilience of the symbiosis, urban land cover was associated with declining endophyte prevalence, a sign that anthropogenic activity may contribute to a breakdown of the symbiosis.

O_LITrophic rewilding, the practice of restoring animal species to recover lost ecosystem functions, has been proposed as a nature-based climate change solution (NbCS) due to animal biogeochemical influences potentially extending to ecosystem carbon capture. C_LIO_LIWe examined this potential using a case study of puma (Puma concolor) and guanaco (Lama guanicoe) restoration in a grassland ecosystem in Patagonia National Park, Chile. We parameterized a model of animal-driven ecosystem carbon dynamics with published measurements from Patagonian grasslands and compared three scenarios: (1) a no-rewilding baseline; (2) rewilding only guanaco; and (3) rewilding guanaco and puma. We estimated net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), and plant and soil carbon stocks. Using differences among scenarios, we estimated ecosystem carbon gains attributable to rewilding guanacos and pumas, and validated baseline estimates using published carbon capture data for Patagonian grasslands. C_LIO_LIPatagonian grasslands with pumas and guanacos could capture (NPP and NECB) 1.27-2.5 times more carbon, and increase plant carbon by 1.76-3.25 times, above the no-rewilding baseline. Large uncertainties in parameter values make estimating soil carbon challenging, but the rewilded ecosystem could store up to 1.16 times more soil carbon, or up to 0.57 times less. C_LIO_LIThe model estimates that NECB in the rewilded ecosystem could amount to 94.41 t C km-2 y-1 (94.38 t C km-2 y-1-94.44 t C km-2 y-1) of which 23%-43% attributable to animal effects. Plant carbon storage estimates were [~]290 t C km-2 (280-300 t C km-2), of which 43%-67% attributable to animal effects. Finally, the model estimated soil C stock gains up to 178 t C km-2, or losses up to 4300 t C km-2. C_LIO_LIPractical implications. We illustrate how to develop first approximation estimates of carbon capture and storage to help assess the feasibility of trophic rewilding as a NbCS. Our modelling revealed that restoring a puma-guanaco trophic cascade could be a feasible NbCS, and identified looming uncertainties about the fate of carbon that need further empirical exploration. More generally, the modelling identifies key measurements that can inform whether restoring trophic cascades can contribute to NbCS. C_LI