Global Change Biology

The integrity of forest-based climate solutions and carbon credits requires persistent carbon storage, but climate change is increasing the risk of natural disturbances that release carbon back into the atmosphere. Using global satellite data, disturbance modeling, and machine learning, we provide the first spatially explicit and scenario-based maps of long-term probability of carbon loss in global forests under different disturbance severities and climate scenarios. We find that North American conifer forests, tropical rainforests, and Asian (sub)tropical dry forests face the greatest risks, and that Eurasian temperate forests, African (sub)tropical dry forests face the lowest. Globally, the likelihood of reversals over 100 years is 31%-42% across all scenarios. Our work helps to maximize the benefits of forest-based climate solutions by informing more strategic project placement and more robust reversal-risk compensation mechanisms, such as buffer pools, and highlights critical additional science to better understand and manage risks of these essential climate solutions. Plain Language SummaryForests can help slow and lessen climate impacts. However, in places this benefit is becoming less reliable as climate change increases natural disturbances such as wildfires, drought, storms, and insect outbreaks, which can release stored carbon back into the atmosphere. In this study, we created the first scenario-based global maps of risks and found that the risk of carbon loss is widespread and highly variable across regions, with especially high vulnerability in North American conifer forests, tropical rainforests, and Asian tropical and subtropical dry forests. Our study highlights the importance of considering disturbance risks when siting forest projects for climate mitigation, and developing protocols for carbon markets, such as in voluntary programs and under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. Key PointsO_LIA demographic model framework estimates the reversal risk from natural disturbances over 100 years in global forests C_LIO_LISpatially explicit maps under different severity scenarios show variation in the integrated 100-year risk of carbon reversal C_LIO_LISpatially explicit maps estimate the required buffer pool needed to compensate for disturbance-driven reversals in global forests C_LI

Future climate change may reshape ecological communities not only by increasing mean temperature, but also by altering the consequences of increasingly frequent heatwaves. Predicting these effects requires understanding how background warming interacts with short heatwaves in natural communities, where responses can arise through direct thermal stress and species interactions. We tested this using 32 outdoor freshwater mesocosms exposed to sustained near-future warming while capturing a documented natural heatwave. Warming raised temperature maxima that exceeded the thermal threshold of the pond snail, a main grazer in the community. Warmed communities showed lower grazer abundance, increased macrophyte and insect herbivore abundance, reduced phytoplankton biomass, and lower zooplankton density. Complementary assays showed that heatwave-level temperatures promoted macrophyte growth and reduced grazer survival, whereas reduced zooplankton performance mainly reflected indirect warming effects via food-web cascades. Thus, near-future warming can amplify natural heatwave impacts by exceeding consumer thermal thresholds and propagating through species interactions.

O_LIDrought and warming can disrupt soil microbial processes and ecosystem functioning. Although soil microorganisms can exhibit physiological adjustments to drought, it remains unclear how they allocate resources between extracellular resource acquisition, potential oxidative metabolism, and carbon storage during drought and recovery, particularly under constant warming and/or heat waves. C_LIO_LIHere, we tested the effects of drought on microbial resource allocation strategies across warming regimes during the resistance and recovery phases. We performed a full-factorial outdoor mesocosm experiment combining drought with constant warming and periodic heat waves, applied individually and in combination. We measured the potential activities of extracellular enzymes as proxy for the acquisition of microbial resources, the activity of dehydrogenase as a proxy for the potential active oxidative metabolism, and microbial glycogen pools as a proxy for carbon storage. We also quantified drought legacy effects by measuring microbial functioning before the new drought treatments, capturing the influence of the drought imposed in the previous year. C_LIO_LIDuring the resistance phase, dehydrogenase activity and glycogen pools remained stable, despite reduced extracellular enzyme production, while enzyme allocation shifted towards oxidative enzymes associated with acquisition of recalcitrant C in warming regimes. One month after rewetting, all microbial proxies no longer differed from the control soil moisture conditions. Drought legacy effects were observed in extracellular enzymes, dehydrogenase activity, and glycogen pools, with glycogen exhibiting the strongest legacy effect. C_LIO_LIWe conclude that the asymmetrical responses of extracellular resource acquisition and internal C storage to drought and warming may function as strategies for microbial survival in increasingly variable climates. C_LI

Sequential hurricane-heatwave events threaten forest resilience via understudied legacy effects. Using Bayesian Structural Time Series, piecewise Structural Equation Modeling, and a 21-event global synthesis, we quantify how structural degradation non-linearly amplifies productivity loss during subsequent heatwaves. Our Hurricane Michael (2018) case study reveals significant negative GPP legacy effects during the 2019 heatwave. Intact, tall and diverse canopies buffer microclimates and moderate thermal sensitivity. Hurricane-induced structural simplification removes this protection, exposing temperature-sensitive shaded leaves to extreme stress. We identified a context-dependent hydraulic trade-off: structural complexity provides shading but exacerbates forest sensitivity to water deficits during peak heat, the vulnerability of which reverses during the recovery phase. Globally, these legacy effects are triggered by heatwave intensity and modulated by soil type, with loamy-soil forests most vulnerable. These findings highlight the critical role of forest structure in forest responses to compound disturbances. Neglecting structural legacies in Earth System Models likely underestimates risks to global carbon sinks.

Climate change is accelerating species losses in ecosystems across the world. Seed germination is a critical, climate-dependent phase of the plant life cycle; however, the ecological determinants of germination climate niches within diverse landscapes and across functional types (FTs) are still not well understood. In this study, we characterized seed germination temperature and water availability niches for 28 species that represent different FTs (tree, shrub, grass, forb) and vegetation types (grassy woodland, dry and wet forests) within a temperate bioregion (Sydney, Australia). We tested whether ecological determinants, specifically species climate of origin, seed traits, FT and vegetation type explain germination niches and predicted spatial and temporal patterns of germination potential across the landscape under high and low emission scenarios. We found wide variation in thermal and hydric germination niches among species. Optimal germination temperature (thermal niche) was predicted by FT, climate of origin and seed traits, such that shrubs, cool-origin species, and species with large seeds had significantly cooler optimal temperatures for germination. We also quantified spatial and temporal changes in germination potential to identify vulnerable areas and FTs. We found strong species-specific seasonal patterns in germination potential with future climate shifts affecting FTs differently; germination of woody species declined more than forbs. Future germination potential was predicted by historical climatic conditions, with warmer and drier localities being more vulnerable. Overall, our findings demonstrate that species germination responses to climate change depend on FT, seed traits, and species climate of origin, with woody species and warmer, drier parts of the landscape emerging as being particularly vulnerable to declines in recruitment. Our study provides a mechanistic understanding of germination responses to temperature and water availability, enabling predictions of vulnerable species and areas for conservation under climate change, and inform large-scale ecosystem restoration approaches through improved species selection and sowing times.

The impacts of increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves on parasitism are an important frontier for understanding disease risk under climate change. These impacts are complex because parasitism arises from multiple interacting host and parasite traits that can vary in thermal sensitivity and among populations adapted to different temperature regimes. Here, we used a lab microcosm experiment to investigate the effects of heatwaves occurring during two different phases of a winter-adapted mosquito host - ciliate parasite interaction, for six pairs of sympatric host and parasite populations sourced from two geographic regions with differing histories of winter heat. We found that because heatwaves allowed mosquito larvae to evade infection, they reduced parasitism and increased survival. An early heatwave during initial parasite attack had stronger effects than a later heatwave occurring after infections had established. We did not find evidence of local adaptation to heatwaves: impacts were consistent regardless of population, and were mechanistically predictable from previously measured thermal performance curves that described lower infection and stronger host defenses at warm constant temperatures. The results suggest that increasingly frequent heatwaves may accelerate geographic shifts in parasitism, and demonstrate how fundamental host - parasite thermal biology links to the impacts of extreme temperature events.

Tropical dryland ecosystems are highly biodiverse and fragmented and are experiencing significant anthropogenic and climatic changes. With increasing extremes in temperature and precipitation, coupled with significant alteration, these ecosystems are at greater risk of increased exposure and vulnerability to climatic change; however, little work has quantified the climatic shifts occurring within these ecosystems globally. Here, we aim to fill this gap by using the ERA-5 reanalysis and CHIRPS precipitation data to quantify changes in essential climatic variables in tropical drylands since 2000. Overall, we find that regional pressures differ, with tropical dry forests, savannas, and shrublands becoming hotter and drier in the Neotropics and parts of the Afrotropics and Australasia. By contrast, the tropical dry forests in the Indomalayan, Oceania, and Nearctic are experiencing hotter and wetter conditions. Globally, though, these ecosystems are experiencing more change than the global average, suggesting they may be approaching tipping points in their resilience, ultimately shrinking the area where they can survive.

Southwestern Europe faced an extreme wildfire season in 2025, with nearly 700,000 hectares burned in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) alone. Here, we analyze the drivers and impacts of the 2025 wildfire season in the IP and its significance within the ongoing global pyrocrisis. Decades-long declines in burned area, driven by increased fire suppression, ceased after an inflection point in 2022. Fire intensity has escalated over the last two decades, and the energy emitted in 2025 approached that produced annually by a 1,000MW nuclear reactor. Despite a historically wet spring, an extreme summer heatwave triggered a flash drought, dehydrating fuels below critical thresholds. Remarkably, 29-42% of all wildfires spread faster at night than during the day, a seldom-reported phenomenon likely arising from interactions between surface weather, atmospheric instability, and pyroconvective processes. Global change-induced increases in fire intensity facilitated the overwhelming of suppression efforts during simultaneous fire events that may have been manageable decades ago. Fire activity expanded into previously fire-free high-altitude regions, and there was a marked change in fire-size distributions, with the largest wildfire in record and the largest proportion of burned area by megafires (those burning over 5,000ha). Impacts included over 2,000 premature deaths from smoke exposure and significant effects on protected areas. These results indicate shifts in key components of anthropogenic fire regimes, including unprecedented nocturnal fire acceleration and increased burned area and fire intensity, with escalating impacts on human health and ecosystems.

{middle dot} Globally, forest ecosystems face widespread mortality events. However, the independent impacts of distinct stressors, such as heat stress vs edaphic drought, remain poorly understood and physiological early warning indicators for tree mortality are urgently required. {middle dot} We exposed well-watered saplings of Fagus sylvatica, Pseudotsuga menziesii and Picea abies to summer heat waves and subsequent natural winter-desiccation. Physiological parameters (e.g. gas exchange, water uptake velocity via 2H labelling, and volatile organic compound emissions) were monitored throughout the growing season and survival was assessed regularly until subsequent spring to capture immediate and delayed mortality as a consequence of legacy effects. {middle dot} Heat exposure without soil water deficit, followed by winter desiccation, triggered species-specific mortality rates (51.8% F. sylvatica, 48.2% P. abies, 16.9% P. menziesii), with P. abies exhibiting significantly faster mortality response than the other species. Reduced water uptake, lower stomatal conductance, impaired photosynthetic efficiency, and altered VOC emissions distinguished non-surviving from surviving saplings months before visible damage in all three species. {middle dot} Heat stress drives mortality independent of edaphic drought, with sub-lethal physiological indicators detectable up to 10 months before visual signs. These early warning indicators could enable damage detection before lethal thresholds are crossed, offering new strategies for mitigating climate change-driven forest decline.

Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, reshaping ecosystems and threatening biodiversity worldwide. Anticipating where invaders will establish and where they will exert the strongest ecological impacts are key challenges for early detection and targeted management. Although Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast biological invasions, they often provide uncertain estimates of establishment ranges and limited insight into invader performance, making it difficult to anticipate ecological impacts. Here, we address these limitations by integrating physiological information on invader performance with SDMs to identify regions of high invasion risk. Using the brown alga Rugulopteryx okamurae, one of the most prominent marine invaders in Europe, we first test alternative hypotheses of northern establishment limits: (i) a cold-survival constraint driven by winter temperatures and (ii) a growth constraint derived from the species' thermal performance. To identify the more likely scenario, we combine cold-tolerance experiments with seasonal growth comparisons between the invader and a native macroalga Dictyota dichotoma, whose established distribution allows physiological performance to be directly related to realised presence. Finally, we project seasonal growth of the invader across the predicted establishment range as a proxy for biomass accumulation and potential ecological impacts. Our results indicate that northern limit in Europe will be more likely constrained by winter survival rather than growth, extending the potential establishment range of Rugulopteryx to mid-Norway. In contrast, the highest impacts are likely to remain concentrated in southern Europe, where thermal conditions sustain high year-round growth. Overall, our approach illustrates how understanding the physiological response of invaders to their environment can improve the interpretation of SDM outputs and help identify areas at greatest risk of impact within their potential establishment range.

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves under climate change highlight the need to understand how biodiversity regulates forest canopy thermal dynamics. Although tree diversity can buffer the microclimate, its effects on canopy temperature and the role of mycorrhizal symbioses remain unclear. We addressed this question in the MyDiv tree diversity experiment in Germany, where tree species richness (1-, 2-, and 4-species mixtures) and mycorrhizal types (arbuscular, ectomycorrhizal, and mixed) are factorially manipulated. During the 2024 growing season, we conducted nine uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys using integrated thermal and LiDAR sensors to quantify canopy temperature and structural complexity, together with measurements of leaf water content, specific leaf area, soil moisture, and vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Increasing tree diversity generally reduced canopy temperature, although the strength of this relationship varied seasonally and among mycorrhizal types. Cooling effects were strongest during peak summer heat and were more pronounced in arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) communities than in ectomycorrhizal (EM) and mixed (AM+EM) communities. In contrast, EM communities exhibited greater canopy structural complexity, whereas AM communities maintained higher soil and leaf water content. Structural complexity increased with tree diversity but did not necessarily result in greater canopy cooling. Structural equation modelling revealed that forest thermal buffering emerged through complementary structural and hydraulic pathways, whose relative importance shifted seasonally, with hydraulic regulation becoming increasingly important under hotter and drier conditions. By linking canopy temperature, canopy structure, and plant water relations, our study provides mechanistic insights for understanding how multiple facets of biodiversity regulate forest thermal buffering under climate warming.

A direct empirical relationship between gross primary productivity (GPP) estimated by the eddy covariance method and satellite vegetation indices (VIs) has been widely observed across diverse ecosystems globally. Building on this observed covariation, VIs are frequently utilized as critical parameters - such as the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) - within light use efficiency (LUE) and greenness-based models for carbon cycle monitoring. However, actual canopy carbon assimilation is jointly governed by slowly evolving structural parameters and highly dynamic functional traits, such as physiological efficiency. The extent to which the macro-scale VI-GPP covariance is driven by structural scaffolding, and how this structural signal decouples from physiological function under environmental stress, remains to be systematically quantified. Here, we synthesized half-hourly eddy covariance measurements from 328 globally distributed sites and paired them with a rigorously angle-normalized Enhanced Vegetation Index (nadir view and fixed solar zenith angle at 30 degrees, EVI_SZA30). By applying a nonlinear light-response curve model across 54,720 high-frequency temporal windows, we mechanistically disentangled observed actual GPP (GPP_EC) into baseline photosynthetic capacity (P_c) and intrinsic quantum yield (alpha). Our results demonstrate that the macroscopic covariance between EVI_SZA30 and GPP_EC (R^2=0.554) is primarily driven by the index's robust ability to track structural capacity (P_c, R^2=0.538). In contrast, EVI_SZA30 exhibits limited sensitivity to high-frequency variations in functional traits like physiological efficiency (alpha, R^2=0.038). Particularly in water-limited biomes (e.g., open shrublands and woody savannas), intense environmental stress triggers rapid stomatal regulation while the physical canopy structure remains relatively stable. Consequently, the correlation between EVI and P_c becomes notably stronger than its correlation with actual GPP_EC, highlighting a pronounced structural-physiological decoupling. Because discrete overpasses by sun-synchronous polar-orbiting satellites face intrinsic temporal constraints in capturing sub-daily physiological down-regulation (e.g., midday photosynthetic depression), future monitoring paradigms could greatly benefit from the continuous, high-frequency observations provided by next-generation geostationary (GEO) satellites to bridge the gap between structural parameters and transient ecosystem function.

Intensifying fire regimes threaten forests globally, but the risk of persistent post-fire forest loss and its potential mitigation remains poorly quantified. We analyzed millions of wildfires worldwide from 2001 to 2024 and tracked recovery in satellite-observed forest structure and ecosystem function. Post-fire persistent forest loss, indicated by modeled non-recovery to pre-fire conditions over decadal timescales, affected 57.1% of burned forest area globally since 2001, with hotspots in Pacific temperate and southern boreal forests. We then identified 'crucial fires' as events exceeding a stringent modeled-risk probability threshold for persistent structural or functional non-recovery, with fire severity strongly predicting this loss. This severity dependence revealed a management pathway, as locations with prior low-severity fire experienced lower severity in subsequent wildfires and had lower modeled probability of becoming crucial. Under a model-based counterfactual scenario, applying the estimated severity attenuation was associated with a 7.6% reduction; the top 1% of road-accessible areas accounted for 35% of this reduction. These results provide a global framework for identifying where wildfire threatens forest resistance and where targeted low-severity fire management like prescribed fire might be used to combat global forest loss.

AimHere we aim to disentangle species-specific bioclimatic drivers of forest site productivity and project their future dynamics, providing a spatially explicit basis for anticipating climate-driven shifts in productivity and their implications for forest carbon sequestration. LocationIberian Peninsula. Time period1985-2014 (calibration); 2071-2100 (projected under CMIP6 scenarios). Major taxa studied21 Iberian tree species. MethodsWe used Site Form (SF) maps derived from the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory, spatially interpolating plot-level SF estimates as a continuous productivity index and relating them to 25 bioclimatic variables. Multiple linear regression models were selected via complementary stepwise and subset regression and validated on independent hold-out data (80%/20% split). ResultsValidated [Formula] ranged from 0.46 (Quercus faginea) to 0.97 (Pinus pinaster); 17 of 21 species reached [Formula]. BI013 precipitation of the wettest month), not BI014, was the most frequently retained predictor (15/17); BI014 was retained in only (11/17 models with a near-even sign split. Combining projected changes in mean productivity and habitat extent under SSP5-8.5, fifteen of sixteen applicable species lose total productivity by 2071-2100, six -- including Fagus sylvatica and Betula alba -- collapsing to below 1% of their reference-period value; only Pinus pinaster gains, and only under the lowest-emission pathway (up to 175%) -- under SSP5-8.5 it too loses productivity, albeit less than any other species (35% of its reference-period value retained). Limiting warming to SSP1-2.6 spares Mediterranean pine and oak species but not Euro-Siberian and montane ones. Main conclusionsThese validated, extrapolation-aware models reveal a near-universal, climate-driven collapse in Iberian forest site productivity, with direct implications for the carbon-sink potential currently attributed to these forest types, and provide a route to dynamic, climate-aware carbon-uptake estimates for the region.

Background and AimsAnthropogenic global change is altering the environmental stressors facing plants and their microbial symbionts. Changes in drought and temperature have received wide attention, but how other pervasive human impacts - land conversion for agricultural development and urbanization, and changes in nutrient conditions and pollutants - impact plant- microbe symbioses is relatively unknown. Here, we investigated how these anthropogenic global change drivers influence historic changes in the prevalence of widespread symbionts of grasses, Epichloe fungal endophytes. MethodsWe examined 8,739 seeds from 1,951 herbarium specimens collected between 1895 and 2019 for the presence of seed-transmitted Epichloe fungal endophytes in three grass host species (Agrostis hyemalis, Agrostis perennans, and Elymus virginicus). We hypothesized that the symbiosis provides fitness benefits under anthropogenic stresses (i.e. increased nitrogen deposition and land use change) that should translate to increased prevalence of the interaction among specimens exposed to those stresses. Key ResultsAnthropogenic stresses had contrasting effects on endophyte prevalence. Notably, among Agrostis host species, high nitrogen deposition was associated with high endophyte prevalence and with increasing trends in prevalence through time. We also found that highly urbanized landscapes were associated with reduced prevalence and negative temporal trends in endophyte prevalence across species. We also identified a weak positive relationship between agricultural land cover and average endophyte prevalence for Elymus virginicus, though temporal trends in prevalence did not differ between high and low levels of agricultural land cover. ConclusionsAnthropogenic stressors influenced endophyte prevalence in diverse ways. While we found increasing prevalence in the face of nitrogen deposition, a sign of the potential resilience of the symbiosis, urban land cover was associated with declining endophyte prevalence, a sign that anthropogenic activity may contribute to a breakdown of the symbiosis.

O_LITrophic rewilding, the practice of restoring animal species to recover lost ecosystem functions, has been proposed as a nature-based climate change solution (NbCS) due to animal biogeochemical influences potentially extending to ecosystem carbon capture. C_LIO_LIWe examined this potential using a case study of puma (Puma concolor) and guanaco (Lama guanicoe) restoration in a grassland ecosystem in Patagonia National Park, Chile. We parameterized a model of animal-driven ecosystem carbon dynamics with published measurements from Patagonian grasslands and compared three scenarios: (1) a no-rewilding baseline; (2) rewilding only guanaco; and (3) rewilding guanaco and puma. We estimated net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), and plant and soil carbon stocks. Using differences among scenarios, we estimated ecosystem carbon gains attributable to rewilding guanacos and pumas, and validated baseline estimates using published carbon capture data for Patagonian grasslands. C_LIO_LIPatagonian grasslands with pumas and guanacos could capture (NPP and NECB) 1.27-2.5 times more carbon, and increase plant carbon by 1.76-3.25 times, above the no-rewilding baseline. Large uncertainties in parameter values make estimating soil carbon challenging, but the rewilded ecosystem could store up to 1.16 times more soil carbon, or up to 0.57 times less. C_LIO_LIThe model estimates that NECB in the rewilded ecosystem could amount to 94.41 t C km-2 y-1 (94.38 t C km-2 y-1-94.44 t C km-2 y-1) of which 23%-43% attributable to animal effects. Plant carbon storage estimates were [~]290 t C km-2 (280-300 t C km-2), of which 43%-67% attributable to animal effects. Finally, the model estimated soil C stock gains up to 178 t C km-2, or losses up to 4300 t C km-2. C_LIO_LIPractical implications. We illustrate how to develop first approximation estimates of carbon capture and storage to help assess the feasibility of trophic rewilding as a NbCS. Our modelling revealed that restoring a puma-guanaco trophic cascade could be a feasible NbCS, and identified looming uncertainties about the fate of carbon that need further empirical exploration. More generally, the modelling identifies key measurements that can inform whether restoring trophic cascades can contribute to NbCS. C_LI

A central question in biodiversity conservation under global change is whether species maintain viable populations under both mammal disturbance and climate warming. This requires demographic studies that integrating vital rates responses to mammal disturbance and climate warming across an entire life to. Using Integral Projection Models parameterized with demographic data, we found the population growth rates of Thermopsis lanceolata under both ambient and warming conditions, initially decreased on new mounds, further declined on seminew mounds, but eventually exceeded initial levels on old mounds. This stage-dependent responses were largely driven by clonal reproduction (i.e., clonal production and/or ramet size distribution), which emerged as both the most sensitive vital rate and the primary contributor to variation in population growth rates across recovery stages. Additionally, we found that the combined effects of plateau zokor disturbance and warming on population growth rates of new mounds was greater than the sum of their individual effects, leading to population decline on new mounds. Such synergistical effects was mainly due to a larger decrease of ramet size distribution. These findings suggest that multifactorial experiments are important for biodiversity research, rather than merely adding single effects on population dynamics. In addition, clonal reproduction may be a key vital rate for population maintenance under global change.

Mass coral bleaching events driven by marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency and severity, yet the long-term recovery trajectories of surviving corals remain poorly understood. Here, leveraging a cohort of individual coral colonies with a decade of tracked environmental and bleaching history, we captured structural shifts in the coral thermal performance landscape. Specifically, we quantified thermal performance curves (TPCs) for photosynthesis and calcification in bleaching-resistant and bleaching-susceptible colonies of two ecologically dominant reef-building corals (Montipora capitata and Porites compressa) at four and six years following the 2019 marine heatwave in K[a]neohe Bay, Hawaii (2023 and 2025, respectively). Coral thermal performance shifted substantially between 2023 and 2025, and these shifts differed between species, bleaching phenotypes, and traits. In P. compressa, photosynthetic thermal optimum (Topt) shifted downward over time by 1.6{degrees}C across both phenotypes, suggesting recalibration toward prevailing conditions at the potential cost of future heat tolerance. In M. capitata, photosynthetic performance was lower in bleaching-susceptible corals in 2023 but converged by 2025, suggesting susceptible colonies recovered. In contrast, Topt of photosynthesis remained persistently higher in bleaching-resistant colonies, likely reflecting established symbiont communities. Critically, photosynthesis and calcification did not recover in parallel. Calcification TPCs for both phenotypes of M. capitata were stable across both timepoints, whereas calcification TPCs in P. compressa continued to change through 2025. These findings demonstrate that coral thermal performance is not static following heatwaves but continues to be reshaped over multi-year recovery periods, and that species-specific traits and strategies can fundamentally constrain the pace and coupling of physiological recovery. Furthermore, elevated thermal tolerance acquired through a heatwave can erode during prolonged periods of ambient temperatures. As recurrent bleaching events shorten recovery windows, understanding these dynamic physiological trajectories are essential for understanding and forecasting reef futures.

Environmental changes are reshaping the distribution and seasonal dynamics of vector-borne diseases, with important implications for public health. Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) cause growing concern in Europe, with rising case numbers and ever-expanding circulation areas. The transmission risk of TBEV and WNV follows characteristic seasonal patterns, driven largely by weather-dependent activity of their arthropod vectors. The relative roles of climate and land-use change on the seasonal dynamics and spread of these diseases and their vectors remain, however, poorly quantified. Here, we assess the spread and phenology of TBEV and WNV in response to historical and future climate and land-use changes across Europe. We developed spatiotemporal species distribution models (SDMs) for the viruses and their primary vector species, generating monthly environmental suitability predictions from the 1970s to 2050s. Virus models incorporated vector suitability as a nested predictor to capture the dependence of virus occurrence on vector presence. To disentangle drivers of observed changes, we applied counterfactual historical simulations, attributing shifts in seasonal transmission risk to climate or land-use changes. Historical attribution results show that land-use changes mainly affected absolute vector suitability, whereas climatic changes drove shifts in seasonal transmission risk. Transmission risk is projected to rise continent-wide for both TBEV and WNV over the coming decades. Further, TBEV is projected to undergo pronounced phenological shifts, with a dominant spring peak and a delayed autumn peak extending into October. Prolonged seasonal transmission windows are projected to create hotspots that both intensify and expand across large regions. Taken together, our findings underscore the need for coordinated transnational efforts to manage the projected health burden of TBEV and WNV across Europe, and support upstream prevention by providing climate-informed guidance on intervention timing and spatial prioritisation.

Biodiversity losses continue to outpace traditional management, underscoring the need to understand adaptive capacity and the potential for interventions to increase fitness under climate change. We undertook a genome-wide association study on 156 Acropora palmata genets to investigate the genomic basis of areal growth, endosymbiont association, and thermal tolerance. Seven peaks on chromosomes 1, 3 and 14 were associated with endosymbiont shuffling and two peaks on chromosome 4 were associated with areal growth. As variants were located in non-coding regions we incorporated additional data from an independent field-transplant experiment to investigate their relationship with patterns of gene expression. Intersection of these datasets implicated melanocortin-like receptor activity and Ran GTPase activating protein 1 in endosymbiont composition and surface area growth, respectively. Results indicate that growth and endosymbiont associations may represent more viable intervention targets than temperature tolerance and highlight the need to better understand the role of non-coding variation in basic biology and development of restoration interventions.