Global Change Biology

Winter warming is altering plant exposure to cold events, yet its effects on seasonal cold hardiness dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we quantified bud cold hardiness across four dormant seasons in a boreal peatland forest whole ecosystem warming experiment. Across a +0.00 to +9.00{degrees}C warming gradient, we semi-regularly measured cold hardiness in two overstory (Larix laricina and Picea mariana) and two understory species (Chamaedaphne calyculata and Rhododendron groenlandicum). Warming reduced cold hardiness in fall and spring by delaying acclimation and advancing deacclimation. However, risk was only increased in late winter and spring for three species. Warming reduced snow cover, increasing temperature variability and cold damage to understory shrubs. Together, our results show that cold damage risk depends on species traits, microclimate, and seasonal timing.

Future climate change may reshape ecological communities not only by increasing mean temperature, but also by altering the consequences of increasingly frequent heatwaves. Predicting these effects requires understanding how background warming interacts with short heatwaves in natural communities, where responses can arise through direct thermal stress and species interactions. We tested this using 32 outdoor freshwater mesocosms exposed to sustained near-future warming while capturing a documented natural heatwave. Warming raised temperature maxima that exceeded the thermal threshold of the pond snail, a main grazer in the community. Warmed communities showed lower grazer abundance, increased macrophyte and insect herbivore abundance, reduced phytoplankton biomass, and lower zooplankton density. Complementary assays showed that heatwave-level temperatures promoted macrophyte growth and reduced grazer survival, whereas reduced zooplankton performance mainly reflected indirect warming effects via food-web cascades. Thus, near-future warming can amplify natural heatwave impacts by exceeding consumer thermal thresholds and propagating through species interactions.

The Arctic is warming rapidly, causing permafrost thaw and accelerating the release of greenhouse gases. Rapid thaw features such as retrogressive thaw slumps are increasing in frequency and severity across the Arctic; however, their associated greenhouse gas emissions are poorly constrained. Current estimates of emissions from retrogressive thaw slumps rely largely on laboratory incubations and carbon stock estimates rather than in-situ field measurements. Here we directly quantify methane and carbon dioxide fluxes from the exposed headwall of an active retrogressive thaw slump. We show that thaw immediately releases biogenic methane and carbon dioxide, originating from gases trapped within the frozen soil matrix. Microbial transcription of methyl-coenzyme M reductase suggests archaea carrying out methanogenesis at subzero temperatures are the source of trapped methane. Carbon emissions varied by an order of magnitude among cryostratigraphic units, reflecting differences in geomorphologic history, organic carbon and nitrogen content, and microbial community composition. Carbon emissions were highest from organic-rich paleo cryosols from the Late Holocene that contained abundant methanogenic archaea. We estimate that [~]300 kg C (CO2 equivalents) is emitted annually from the headwall of this small thaw slump (surface area of [~]1200 m2). Considering the thousands of active slumps and extensive coastal permafrost erosion across the northern continuous permafrost zone, such features may represent a growing natural source of GHG emissions. These findings indicate that current permafrost carbon feedback models underestimate GHG release by omitting the direct release of trapped gases stored in permafrost.

Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change as primary terrestrial carbon sinks. While some studies suggest that global warming enhances forest productivity, a growing body of evidence highlights detrimental impact primarily driven by increased water stress. Yet the extent to which positive effects of climate change offset its negative impacts on tree species productivity remains unclear at large spatial extents. We assessed forest growth and mortality for the 21 most abundant tree species in Europe using National Forest Inventory data from more than 50,000 plots and 700,000 trees to disentangle the relative importance of climate and forest structure. Specifically, we examined how vapor pressure deficit (VPD) anomalies across species climatic edges and stand developmental stages affect forest growth and mortality occurrence and intensity (i.e. whether mortality occurred and the amount of basal area lost). Then, we aggregated the responses across species and separately for broad-leaved and needle-leaved species to assess whether forest growth and mortality differed between major functional groups. Although the importance of forest growth and mortality drivers varied markedly among species, climate had a stronger influence on mortality than on growth, particularly in needle-leaved species. Forest growth declined and mortality increased along VPD anomaly in most species and forests studied. Responses were most pronounced at arid species edges in early-stage broad-leaved forests and at wet edges in late-stage needle-leaved forests, where differences between functional groups were also highest. We evidence the need to parametrise species-specific models of forest growth and mortality across large spatial extents to better understand and predict effects of climate change on forest productivity. In addition, our results emphasize the importance of improving the understanding of forest mortality processes given the strong influence of climate on mortality, while also further studying vulnerable populations to climate change in arid edges of species distributions.

Forests are essential to the global carbon cycle with light use efficiency (LUE) as a key parameter for assessing carbon sequestration capacity. However, the variations and drivers of LUE remain inadequately understood. Using remote sensing data, we analyzed global LUE patterns across five forest types and identified the main drivers. The global average annual LUE of forests is 0.93 {+/-} 0.36 g C MJ-1 during the period 2001-2022, with an increasing trend of 0.0034 g C MJ-1 yr-1. Among forest types, evergreen broadleaf forests exhibited the highest LUE, followed by evergreen needleleaf forests. Deciduous broadleaf forests and mixed forests showed similar levels, while deciduous needleleaf forests exhibiting the lowest LUE. Variations in LUE were jointly driven by plant traits and climatic conditions, with generalized linear models explaining 86% and 98% of spatial and temporal LUE variations, respectively. These findings highlight the critical role of plant traits and climate in shaping forest LUE, providing insights for enhancing carbon cycle models and informing forest management strategies in the context of global change.

Tree early life stages are particularly sensitive to warming, yet their responses remain poorly understood despite their importance for forest regeneration. Here, we investigated how warming affects early-life traits in two widespread European white oaks: Quercus pubescens and Q. petraea. We conducted a common garden experiment using 17 populations exposed to three temperature regimes. We measured 19 traits encompassing germination, phenology, and functional and fitness-related traits and performed individual trait mixed-effects models based on temperature transfer distance and the climate of the population. We found that population climate was the primary driver of early stages traits responses to warming, with climatic drivers varying strongly among traits and species. Particularly in Q. pubescens, warmer and drier populations showed lower fitness (germination and survival percentages, total biomass) that declined further under warming, consistent with a cost of drought avoidance strategies under continuously wet conditions; in Q. petraea, continental populations outperformed others at low temperature transfer distance but suffered the steepest fitness declines under further warming, suggesting a narrow thermal optimum shaped by cold adaptation. Warming generally advanced germination and leaf emergence, increased leaf pigment concentrations and fine-root allocation, reduced specific leaf area. Extreme warming reduced survival, growth and germination. Nevertheless, moderate warming (+0 to +5{degrees}C) was rarely detrimental and sometimes beneficial. Our results demonstrate that population climatic origin is a key determinant of regeneration responses to warming, highlighting the need to consider within-species adaptive variation to understand forest regeneration potential under climate change.

Global marine heatwaves have devastated tropical coral reefs, and further mortality is projected under ongoing climate change. Identifying thermally tolerant coral colonies is therefore a priority for conservation, restoration, and research. Portable acute heat stress assays (e.g., CBASS) enable rapid, standardized estimates of coral thermal tolerance under field conditions. However, it remains unresolved whether such experimentally derived metrics (ED5, ED50, DW) predict bleaching and mortality in situ. Here, we quantified acute thermal tolerance metrics for 2,068 coral colonies across 12 common Indo-Pacific species, six months prior to an unprecedented heat stress event in northeastern Peninsular Malaysia and compared experimentally derived ED and DW values to subsequent bleaching severity and mortality in the field. Experimental thermal tolerance metrics explained only a limited proportion of variation in bleaching outcomes and survival. Predictive power varied among species and was higher in slow-growing species. Our findings suggest that while acute heat stress assays capture substantial variation in coral thermal tolerance, their ability to predict in situ outcomes is context-dependent and diminishes under severe thermal stress. Ultimately, in situ coral bleaching under severe heat stress may reduce the discriminatory capacity of acute assay-derived tolerance metrics.

Species have optimal environmental conditions, and ongoing climate warming is reshaping community composition. In particular, many ecosystems exhibit thermophilization, a shift toward species adapted to warmer conditions. However, this process is often slower in forests, leading to a mismatch between community composition and ambient temperature, referred to as climatic debt. Despite increasing attention, its effects on forest productivity remain unclear. Quantifying tree community responses to warming is therefore essential for predicting future forest dynamics and informing biodiversity conservation. In this study, we analyzed natural forests across Japan using data from the 3rd and 4th National Forest Inventory periods (2009-2018). We first assessed compositional consistency between survey periods using the Bray-Curtis index and excluded plots with high dissimilarity ([≥] 0.8). Species-specific thermal optima were estimated using species distribution models and used to calculate the Community Temperature Index (CTI). Thermophilization was quantified as the temporal change in CTI, while climatic debt was defined as the difference between CTI and mean annual temperature. We then examined the relationship between climatic debt and changes in aboveground biomass, used as a proxy for productivity, using linear mixed-effects models. We found a mean thermophilization rate of 0.005 {degrees}C yr-{superscript 1}. Despite this shift, climatic debt increased at an average rate of -0.022 {degrees}C yr-{superscript 1}, indicating a growing mismatch between climate warming and community thermal composition. Although thermophilization showed no statistically significant association with stand structure, it tended to vary with the proportion of small-diameter trees, suggesting the influence of multiple interacting drivers. Importantly, increasing climatic debt was significantly associated with declines in forest primary productivity, even after accounting for stand structure and regional variation. These results demonstrate that delayed thermal adjustment of tree communities can constrain forest productivity under ongoing climate warming, highlighting the importance of evaluating community-level thermal responses for sustaining forest ecosystem functioning.

Tropical dryland ecosystems are highly biodiverse and fragmented and are experiencing significant anthropogenic and climatic changes. With increasing extremes in temperature and precipitation, coupled with significant alteration, these ecosystems are at greater risk of increased exposure and vulnerability to climatic change; however, little work has quantified the climatic shifts occurring within these ecosystems globally. Here, we aim to fill this gap by using the ERA-5 reanalysis and CHIRPS precipitation data to quantify changes in essential climatic variables in tropical drylands since 2000. Overall, we find that regional pressures differ, with tropical dry forests, savannas, and shrublands becoming hotter and drier in the Neotropics and parts of the Afrotropics and Australasia. By contrast, the tropical dry forests in the Indomalayan, Oceania, and Nearctic are experiencing hotter and wetter conditions. Globally, though, these ecosystems are experiencing more change than the global average, suggesting they may be approaching tipping points in their resilience, ultimately shrinking the area where they can survive.

The impacts of increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves on parasitism are an important frontier for understanding disease risk under climate change. These impacts are complex because parasitism arises from multiple interacting host and parasite traits that can vary in thermal sensitivity and among populations adapted to different temperature regimes. Here, we used a lab microcosm experiment to investigate the effects of heatwaves occurring during two different phases of a winter-adapted mosquito host - ciliate parasite interaction, for six pairs of sympatric host and parasite populations sourced from two geographic regions with differing histories of winter heat. We found that because heatwaves allowed mosquito larvae to evade infection, they reduced parasitism and increased survival. An early heatwave during initial parasite attack had stronger effects than a later heatwave occurring after infections had established. We did not find evidence of local adaptation to heatwaves: impacts were consistent regardless of population, and were mechanistically predictable from previously measured thermal performance curves that described lower infection and stronger host defenses at warm constant temperatures. The results suggest that increasingly frequent heatwaves may accelerate geographic shifts in parasitism, and demonstrate how fundamental host - parasite thermal biology links to the impacts of extreme temperature events.

Snow algae darken snowpacks and accelerate melt worldwide. Although elevation strongly structures the physical conditions of mountain snowfields, its influence on snow algal traits and their effects on snowpack reflectance remains unclear. Here, we investigated snow algal composition, cellular traits, and optical properties in summer blooms across an elevational range of 1,059-3,423 m a.s.l. in the western United States, spanning two elevational gradients in the Cascade Range (CA, OR, WA) and the Rocky Mountains (UT, WY, MT). Across all samples (n = 294), snow albedo declined strongly with increasing algal cell density, indicating that total biomass, rather than pigment composition, is the dominant driver of albedo reduction. However, within Sanguina-dominated blooms (117 of 206 samples bloom samples identified across the dataset), neither relative abundance nor algal cell density varied systematically with elevation. Instead, mean cell size increased with elevation, while per-cell pigment concentrations declined, leading to higher astaxanthin:chlorophyll-a ratios driven primarily by reductions in chlorophyll-a per cell. These elevation-dependent shifts in cell size and pigment balance were consistent across both mountain ranges, indicating phenotypic acclimation to increasing environmental stress with elevation. Together, these findings link cellular-scale acclimation of a widespread snow alga to radiative processes shaping mountain snowpacks.

Understanding the biotic processes that drive soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralization is essential for predicting the climate warming-carbon cycle feedback. Here, we combined Tree-of-life sequencing (TOLseq; cross-domain profiling using ribosomal RNA) with quantitative conversion factors linking rRNA transcript abundance to biomass, to understand how soil food web changes affect SOC mineralization in an in situ soil warming experiment. Field observations showed that warming reduced SOC stocks, but after decades of warming SOC mineralization had acclimated. An energetic soil food web model revealed both bottom-up and top-down controls in the trophic cascades, shifting C flows from fungal and plant-associated channels towards the bacterial channel. This caused an increase in SOC mineralization rate in warmed soils of 30% per-unit biomass across the year.

As global temperatures rise, ecological communities are increasingly dominated by warm-affiliated species, a process known as community warming or thermophilisation. Yet, why different taxa exhibit different rates of community warming remains unclear. Habitat composition and structure are likely drivers of this variation, as the ecological consequences of warming are filtered by local environmental conditions. Using over 40 years of monitoring data spanning terrestrial (birds, insects, plants) and freshwater (phytoplankton) communities, we show that habitat structure determines how strongly communities track warming. Forest cover systematically slows thermophilisation by reducing communities sensitivity to temperature change, whereas habitat heterogeneity has weak and variable effects that differ among ecosystems. Together, these results demonstrate that uneven thermophilisation arises from habitat-mediated differences in how communities respond to a shared climatic signal. Incorporating these effects is essential for improving predictions of biodiversity change under ongoing climate warming.

The exchange of energy and organisms across habitat boundaries links aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and sustains ecosystem functioning. Although disturbance may disrupt these linkages, the mechanisms at play remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the extent to which flow intermittency may disrupt riparian-aquatic ecosystem linkages by altering consumer communities in the recipient ecosystem or by altering resource quality in the donor ecosystem. We ran an experiment in an intermittent river network in California, focusing on a critical forest-to-river subsidy (organic matter in the form of leaf litter), its transformation, and its reciprocal benefit (aquatic insect production). Using three riparian species (willow, cottonwood, and oak) at sites spanning a gradient of flow permanence, we quantified intraspecific plasticity in leaf traits (specific leaf area, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and {delta}13C), measured decomposition rates, and estimated the secondary production of aquatic shredders (Plecoptera). Across all leaf species, decomposition rates were 16-36% lower at intermittent than perennial sites, an effect largely driven by intraspecific leaf trait plasticity rather than changes in consumer abundance. At high flow intermittency, willow experienced water stress (enriched {delta}13C) and reduced specific leaf area, while cottonwood showed primarily stoichiometric responses (reduced leaf nitrogen and phosphorus). Despite these divergent strategies, all species produced lower-quality litter at intermittent sites. Variance partitioning confirmed that initial litter quality uniquely explained 51.5% of variation in decomposition rates, more than double the contribution of invertebrate community metrics; and structural equation modeling revealed that both leaf traits and stonefly (Plecoptera) secondary production significantly predicted decomposition rates, with leaf traits exerting the stronger effect. Notably, stonefly secondary production was 37-98% lower at intermittent sites across leaf species. Because these insects later emerge as terrestrial adults, they provide a significant energy flux to riparian predators, and, thus, impoverished litter quality suppresses the reciprocal transfer of energy back to terrestrial food webs. As drought intensifies globally, the decoupling of terrestrial-aquatic linkages may begin in the riparian canopy.

Demographic risks from climate change remain poorly understood for megaherbivore species which face unique challenges because their large food requirements impose strong bottom-up limitation while their small surface-area-to-volume ratio limits heat dissipation. Here, we test how megaherbivore mortality is shaped by the concurrent effects of temperature and rainfall along with vegetation productivity, a potentially critical modifier of climate effects. By analysing four decades of monthly mortality records from 4,457 semi-captive Asian elephants across Myanmar, we identify multiple environmental pathways regulating megaherbivore mortality. Elephant mortality increased at extreme hot and cold temperatures in regions with low annual vegetation productivity, whereas high vegetation productivity buffered against such U-shaped effects of temperature. Furthermore, high rainfall amplified the negative impacts of extreme heat, underlining risks arising from the joint effects of heat and humidity. Seasonal declines in vegetation productivity did not explain the elevated mortality at temperature extremes. Together, our findings show that megaherbivores face elevated risks from global warming, but such risks strongly depend on vegetation productivity and humidity, highlighting multiple pathways through which climate change can shape the dynamics of megaherbivore populations.

Thermal history provenancing can guide the choice of parental broodstock for selective breeding of corals from distinct reefs and has been proposed as an intervention for enhancing climate resilience. However, the genetic and molecular mechanisms underlying resultant offspring responses to heat stress, particularly during early life stages, remain poorly understood. Here, we generated Acropora tersa larvae and recruits by crossing parental colonies from the historically warmer Martin Reef and cooler Davies Reef and assessed the effects of within- and between-reef crosses on genetic diversity and transcriptional responses to heat stress. Genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism analyses showed that broodstock from Martin and Davies Reefs were weakly differentiated (FST = 0.008) and exhibited comparable heterozygosity, as did all larval offspring groups. Transcriptomic analyses of recruits exposed to heat stress (32 {degrees}C for 36 days) revealed that both within- and between-reef offspring groups activated conserved stress-response pathways, with seven genotype-independent heat-responsive genes detected across all offspring groups. Differential expression and enrichment analyses showed induction of defence, protein homeostasis, intracellular transport, and metabolic processes alongside repression of growth- and signalling-related functions, consistent with the Type A General Coral Stress Response. Taken together, these findings suggest that the benefits of thermal history provenancing-informed selective breeding may be limited in low-differentiation systems and that targeted pre-screening of broodstock may help capture functional genetic variation relevant to restoration applications.

The integrity of forest-based climate solutions and carbon credits requires persistent carbon storage, but climate change is increasing the risk of natural disturbances that release carbon back into the atmosphere. Using global satellite data, disturbance modeling, and machine learning, we provide the first spatially explicit and scenario-based maps of long-term probability of carbon loss in global forests under different disturbance severities and climate scenarios. We find that North American conifer forests, tropical rainforests, and Asian (sub)tropical dry forests face the greatest risks, and that Eurasian temperate forests, African (sub)tropical dry forests face the lowest. Globally, the likelihood of reversals over 100 years is 31%-42% across all scenarios. Our work helps to maximize the benefits of forest-based climate solutions by informing more strategic project placement and more robust reversal-risk compensation mechanisms, such as buffer pools, and highlights critical additional science to better understand and manage risks of these essential climate solutions. Plain Language SummaryForests can help slow and lessen climate impacts. However, in places this benefit is becoming less reliable as climate change increases natural disturbances such as wildfires, drought, storms, and insect outbreaks, which can release stored carbon back into the atmosphere. In this study, we created the first scenario-based global maps of risks and found that the risk of carbon loss is widespread and highly variable across regions, with especially high vulnerability in North American conifer forests, tropical rainforests, and Asian tropical and subtropical dry forests. Our study highlights the importance of considering disturbance risks when siting forest projects for climate mitigation, and developing protocols for carbon markets, such as in voluntary programs and under the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. Key PointsO_LIA demographic model framework estimates the reversal risk from natural disturbances over 100 years in global forests C_LIO_LISpatially explicit maps under different severity scenarios show variation in the integrated 100-year risk of carbon reversal C_LIO_LISpatially explicit maps estimate the required buffer pool needed to compensate for disturbance-driven reversals in global forests C_LI

Accelerated warming at high elevations is having a disproportionate impact on alpine species. While assessments of climate vulnerability require quantifying the ecological and evolutionary components of adaptive capacity, such assessments are rare, especially in alpine systems. We leverage recent advances in population and landscape genomics to assess how variation in spatial heterogeneity and population connectivity across alpine systems influences adaptive capacity, using the North American Rosy-Finch species complex as a model system. In doing so, we clarify taxonomic relationships across the complex and identify one new ESU, the Sierra Nevada Rosy-Finch, based on its combined ecological and evolutionary distinctiveness. We then illustrate how combining genomic analyses with ecological data can improve estimates of adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure and ultimately clarify climate vulnerability. Overall, our integrative analyses revealed that more isolated lineages, such as the Sierra Nevada Rosy-Finch, have lower adaptive capacity and face disproportionately high risks from climate change. This work highlights how conservation strategies that account for the multidimensional aspects of adaptive capacity can improve estimates of climate vulnerability.

Climate warming accelerates glacial meltwater delivery to Arctic lakes, mobilizing metals from thawing catchments and reshaping the selective landscape experienced by resident microbes. Whether these gradients leave detectable evolutionary signatures in environmental resistance genes remains unclear. We investigated four metal resistance genes (merA, arsC, cadA, and chrR) in metagenomic datasets from Lake Hazen (Nunavut, Canada), the largest High Arctic freshwater lake, sampled across a natural hydrological gradient of Control, Low-runoff, and High-runoff regimes. Using a space-for-time design, we combined population-genetic and codon-based approaches to quantify diversity and selection, including nucleotide diversity, Tajimas D, nonsynonymous/synonymous diversity ratios, McDonald-Kreitman tests, site-level episodic selection, and Bayesian coalescent and structured-coalescent inference of gene-pool diversity and exchange. This multi-pronged approach allowed us to distinguish gene-specific evolutionary responses from broader demographic effects. We found marked heterogeneity among genes: merA showed increasing diversity and consistent evidence of adaptive evolution along the runoff gradient; cadA displayed the strongest adaptive signal under low runoff, with selective constraint patterns that varied across regimes; chrR exhibited the clearest signature of episodic positive selection, with gene-wide selection and adaptive substitutions concentrated in the high-runoff regime where chromium concentrations were greatest; while arsC remained largely consistent with neutral evolution across regimes. Together, these results show that climate-driven metal mobilization is associated with gene- and regime-specific diversification of microbial metal resistance gene pools in Arctic soil microbiomes. Differences in metal speciation (with arsenic and chromium occurring as redox-sensitive oxyanions, and mercury, cadmium and zinc as divalent cations) may contribute to the contrasting evolutionary trajectories observed across genes, although in-situ speciation was not assessed in this dataset. Our findings highlight environmental resistance genes as sensitive indicators of changing biogeochemical conditions in rapidly warming polar ecosystems.

It remains challenging to quantify recent changes in forest carbon due to lags in forest inventory measurements. The national U.S. forest inventory remeasures plots every five to ten years, so quantifying current carbon stocks using inventory data requires extrapolating from the last time plots were measured. We address this extrapolation challenge by fusing spatially explicit fire disturbance and canopy cover data from Landsat with forest inventory data using a statistical model. We produce annual estimates of live forest carbon across the Western U.S. from 2005 to 2022, and find that live forest biomass increased from 2005 to 2015, and then declined by 5% from 2015 to 2022 -- a signal missed by both official U.S. reporting and Earth system models. The trend reversal was driven primarily by increasing tree mortality from wildfire, and secondarily by slowing rates of carbon accumulation in undisturbed areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for rapidly changing disturbance regimes, and can help to improve jurisdictional carbon accounting and inform the extent to which federal and state climate mitigation strategies can rely on land to achieve net-zero emissions targets. Significance statementPolicy makers need to accurately and rapidly assess the status of the land carbon sink in order to make land management decisions and to assess progress towards climate commitments. However, lags in on-the-ground measurements make it challenging to do so, and it remains an open question whether Western U.S. forests are a net sink or a source of carbon. We fuse on-the-ground forest measurements with remote sensing data to show that live biomass is net declining in Western U.S. forests, and that this trend is driven primarily by increasing wildfire activity. This result challenges the idea that jurisdictions can rely on the land to offset fossil emissions, and supports tracking land carbon trends separately from fossil emissions inventories.